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The purpose of trading in Forex currency market is to make profits on periodical fluctuation in exchange rates.
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Fundamental Analysis
Forex fundamental analysis is one of two widely recognized approaches to foreign exchange market analysis.
An alternative to technical analysis, which makes use of market trends (i.e. chart analysis) to determine the future value of a particular currency in the FX market, fundamental analysis describes methods of present and future valuation determined by social, economic, and political variables. While technical analysis is praised for its effectiveness at predicting short-term trends (under 3 months), the fundamental analysis approach is better suited at forecasting long-term movement in the FX market.
Employing fundamental analysis strategies requires a basic understanding of supply and demand, the underlying force behind all financial markets. In the case of the FX market, the commodity being exchanged is a particular currency. Because the value of a currency is derived from the economic health of its respective country, global (or local) macroeconomic changes can invariably have an impact on currency rates. Fundamental analysis itself is broken down into two broad subcategories: capital flows and trade flows.
Capital Flows in Fundamental Analysis
A country's capital flows are the net quantity of currency being traded through capital investments, including equity market investments, fixed income market investments, third party licensing agreements, joint ventures, and foreign direct investment�all of which must be considered in fundamental analysis. The first two are the flow of portfolio investments and international government bonds, while the latter three represent the physical flows of capital that serve as financial indicators of stability and growth. Together, they are known as the capital flows.
Trade Flows in Fundamental Analysis
Also known as current accounts, these flows measure the net of imports and exports of a particular country, and the subsequent impact that these flows can have on the value of a currency. The reason that international trade plays an important role in fundamental analysis, and ultimately in FX market, is that importers are required to sell currency used to purchase goods and services being exported. Following this logic, countries that have positive trade flows (exports are higher than imports) run surpluses that serve to increase their currency, while the opposite is true of net importers. This aspect of fundamental analysis is one of the most influential, frequently providing insights into movements in a currency's price.
For more information regarding Fundamental Analysis, see the links in the left section: you can:
* review information on six major economic indicators,
* browse links for applicable foreign exchange news sites,
* see a listing of major governmental web pages and other sources of direct fundamental information feeds
* look at a selection of recommended foreign exchange brokers to begin your own excursion in foreign exchange trading.
How Interest Rate Increases Drive Currency Prices
A common way to think about U.S. interest rates is how much it's going to cost to borrow money, whether for our mortgages or how much we'll earn on our bond and money market investments. Currency traders think bigger. Interest rate policy is actually a key driver of currency prices and typically a strategy for new currency traders.
Fundamentally, if a country raises its interest rates, the currency of that country will strengthen because the higher interest rates attract more foreign investors. When foreign investors invest in U.S. treasuries, they must sell their own currency and buy U.S. Dollars in order to purchase the bonds. If you believe U.S. interest rates will continue to rise, you could express that view by going long U.S. Dollars.
If you believe that the Fed has finished raising rates for the time being, you could capitalize on that view by buying a currency with a higher interest rate, or at least the prospect of relatively higher rates. For example, U.S. rates may be higher than those of Euroland now but the prospect of higher rates in Euroland, albeit still lower than the U.S., may drive investors to purchase Euros.
How Rising Gold Prices Affect Currencies
It's not hard to understand why we've experienced a run-up in gold prices lately. In the US, we're dealing with the threat of inflation and a lot of geo-political tension. Historically, gold is a country-neutral alternative to the U.S. dollar. So given the inverse relationship between gold and the U.S. Dollar, currency traders can take advantage of volatility in gold prices in innovative ways.
For example, if gold breaks an important price level, one would expect gold to move higher in coming periods. With this in mind, forex traders would look to sell dollars and buy Euros, for example, as a proxy for higher gold prices. Moreover, higher gold prices frequently have a positive impact on the currencies of major gold producers. For example, Australia is the world's third largest exporter of gold, and Canada is the world's third largest producer of gold. Therefore, if you believe the price of gold will continue to rise you could establish long positions in Australian Dollar or the Canadian Dollar - or even position to be long those currencies against other major countries like the UK or Japan.
Translating Rising Oil Prices to Currency Trading Opportunities
Equity investors already know that higher oil prices negatively impact the stock prices of companies that are highly dependent on oil such as airlines, since more expensive oil means higher expenses and lower profits for those companies.
In much the same way, a country's dependency on oil determines how its currency will be impacted by a change in oil prices. The US's massive foreign dependence on oil makes the US dollar more sensitive to oil prices than other countries. Therefore, any sharp increase in oil prices is typically dollar-negative.
If you believe the price of oil will continue to increase for the near term, you could express that viewpoint in the currency markets by once again favoring commodity-based economies like Australia and Canada or selling other energy-dependent countries like Japan.
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